How to pick which forekaster to follow (and which to skip)

The four metrics that actually matter when identifying a good forekaster — and the typical mistakes beginners make when choosing whom to copy.

Some forekasters with hot streaks will never reappear, and others with mediocre short-term records have sustained edge. Telling them apart is the difference between winning and losing.

The four metrics that matter

Volume of resolved markets — a forekaster with 8 trades has no proven edge. Minimum: 50 resolved markets.
Difficulty-adjusted accuracy — hitting markets at 90% proves nothing. What matters is the ROI on the amount risked.
Consistency across categories — does the edge only show in politics? Or does it hold in sports and crypto too?
Transparency — do they publish every position or only the winners?

Typical beginner mistakes

Following the one with the best week (regression to the mean).
Ignoring bet size (a forekaster who risks 50% of their bankroll on each trade isn’t good, just lucky not to have blown up yet).
Copying without understanding the thesis.

On Forekast we automatically filter for these four metrics in the public forekaster ranking. If you don’t know where to start, look at Andrea Vega (Elite, Latin American macro specialist) or Diego Restrepo (Pro, regional politics). Before following anyone, also read what a prediction market is if you’re starting from zero.